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The fight of our lifetime

And so we are off again. My sixth election, three won two lost, and I am determined this one makes it four-two. All elections are different, no two remotely the same.  This one will be a roller coaster ride, when advantage will be temporary, and upsets continuous.

The dominate mood of the electorate is anti-politics, the new electorate force the vast autonomous internet army, who cannot - and will not - be controlled.  This election will be no place for the faint hearted, fortune will favour the brave. 

I have just read  Race of a Lifetime: ‘How Obama Won the White House’ by Mark Halperin and John Heilemann. It is a compelling account of the 2008 US Presidential election. What is clear about it is this: he- or she – who  fights hardest wins. Of course strategy, and polling and message are crucial but time after time it is the fighter who pulls through. Obama of course had the courage to take on an apparently invincible Hillary Clinton and win. But Clinton too advanced when she fought her way to success in New Hampshire, and showed limitless guts in the later stages of her campaign.  And John McCain although he lost his way  towards the campaign end,  secured the Republican nomination largely through sheer guts. Fighters win. 

Labour must learn from this. We may have less money than our opponents but we can fight harder, and if we do, we will win through.

It is true that we are behind in the opinion polls but the public mood is uncertain and fickle and this election will change and change again before the final dye is cast. There will be moments when it looks difficult  for us, but other moments when the Tories falter, and that will be our chance. This will be an election like no other in our life time.

I believe that elections are won or lost on the fundamentals, on the big dominant issues that really matter to voters, not the surface noise of a daily news agenda. Voters are wise and getting wiser, they increasingly use the internet to receive their information, they distrust politics and politicians and are determined to make their own autonomous judgments about what is really happening. 

Ironically as the internet increases its influence and news cycles get shorter and shorter the fundamentals matter more and more.  People look more and more for evidence of authenticity, integrity, substance and seriousness. They want politicians who look to the long-term, are prepared to take tough decisions that are in the national interest, and who have got their best interests are heart. Above all they want evidence of values that they can trust.

And that is why in this election we have a fighting chance of success. In most elections that result in an emphatic win for one side or another the fundamentals all lean one way: this was the case in 1945, 1979, and 1997, but it is not the case in 2010. The arguments are much more finely balanced than that.

The biggest fundamental favouring the Conservatives is the mood for change, and it is true that the electorate wants change, but not to an overwhelming degree. In their recent - March - marginal poll Populus found that 56% wanted change, but 40% wanted experience. Difficult for Labour but not impossible.

However although the voters favour change, they do not want a radical change in direction. They favour Labour values, and believe that Labour best  represents their interests.

According to Mori 32% of the nation considers itself Labour, while 30% considers itself Conservative. And 32% believe that Labour stands for the things you believe in, while 27% believe the Conservatives do.   

This is why the electorate is so conflicted and why the election is closer than it might be. The public want change but not change to the Conservatives 

This tension between change and values is the decisive hinge on which the election hinges. The electorate want a better future, and they will vote for the party that they can trust to deliver it, in a way that is fair and benefits all of us, not just some of us. That is why our slogan is ‘ a future fair for all’, because it is what the public want, and what  only Labour can deliver.

The Conservatives have many advantages in this campaign, a media largely friendly to them and vast amounts more money. But it is Labour that has the power of values, Labour that the British people trust to stand up for them, Labour that is on their side.  That is why if we fight, if we are resolute, if we show guts when the going gets tough then we will  prevail. 

This is the race of our lives, the fight of our lives, and we can win it.