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Tony Blair: Europe needs a “grand plan” to save the single currency
Sunday, Jun 24, 2012 in Office of Tony Blair
During an interview for the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, Tony Blair talked about the Euro zone crisis, Britain’s relationship with Europe and the situation in the Middle East.
Full transcript of the interview
Sunday 24th June 2012
Andrew Marr Show, BBC ONE
ANDREW MARR (BBC)
It is 15 years since Tony Blair entered Downing Street after his first election landslide, ‘a new dawn’ he called it; this week sees the anniversary of his exit five years ago, five years.
Since then he has continued his role in the Middle East as peace envoy; he has written his memoirs; he has enjoyed a lucrative career in business. But there are reports that he is keen to take a more prominent role in domestic politics, in support of Labour and Ed Miliband. True or not? Well, Tony Blair is with me again.
We will come onto domestic politics in a moment, but could we just start by talking about the Euro crisis? We have had another warning, this time from the Spanish Premier, that there is only a week to save the Euro; it seems to go on and on. Fundamentally, how serious is this, do you think, for Britain in particular?
TONY BLAIR
It is fundamental for Europe and for Britain. I think the only thing that will save the single currency now is, in a sense, a kind of grand plan, in which Germany is prepared to commit its economy fully to the single currency; that means treating the debts of one as the debts of all, which is very hard for Germany to do.
It means those other countries in the eurozone that need to reform the precise, credible, deliverable programmes of change and reform so that Europe can regain its competitiveness. Otherwise, it is quite unfair to ask Germany to pay. But that is what is necessary now.
ANDREW MARR
So, German pain and pain for the others and without that the Euro is doomed?
TONY BLAIR
I think it is really hard to see otherwise how you have countries whose economies are at a very different state of development, operating within the single currency zone.
The problem at the moment is that Europe, in a sense, has been presented with a choice of on the one hand austerity plus reform, and on the other hand growth and no reform. Frankly, what it needs is growth plus reform. That means reforming labour markets, pensions, welfare, public services, the role of the state and so on.
Essentially within Europe what has happened is that the single currency’s design flaw, if you like, was motivated by politics, delivered in economics. What had to happen once countries joined the single currency is that they had to adjust their economies to come into line with the German economy and they did not.
Now they are having to do that at a time of crisis. It is really tough to ask countries to undergo this structural reform unless they have growth and some hope of employment.
ANDREW MARR
So, that takes us to a hardcore, much more fused together central Europe and we are still on the outside of it.
TONY BLAIR
Yes. Well, this is a big challenge for Britain. The problem is that whatever happens in the eurozone now – if it collapses, or if it stays – you are going to get major change in Europe. You will have a coming together of the economies of Europe in the so-called fiscal compact; you will have a huge support for banking union within Europe; and you will have a political reconstruction of Europe.
If you are going to exercise more control over the economies in the single currency zone, then people will want the political accountability that comes with that. So, in any event there is going to be a huge reconstruction of Europe going on.
Now, for Britain we have to make sure we are part of that; we have to be arguing the case for it, and arguing it on our own terms. That is tough for us.
ANDREW MARR
Particularly after the latest volume of Alastair Campbell’s helpful diaries, which you must be so pleased to pick up at the bookshop, it might be said that, ‘Say what you like about Gordon Brown, but he kept us out of the Euro when it was a political project, when it was going down the wrong path; you wanted us to be in.’ You must occasionally say, ‘Well, actually on that at least: good old Gordon.’
TONY BLAIR
On the economics he was always right; that was never argued. I would disagree with that. I always took the view that economically you had to make an unambiguous case for Britain joining.
Politically, however, I was always in favour of keeping us very positive towards the project of European integration and able to join at any time we wanted to do so.
Now, I think the same is true today. The thing that is really important for our country is to understand that, yes the eurozone and the European Union is undergoing a huge crisis – the most existential crisis since its inception – however, take a step a back; look at the broad sweep of history.
Because of the way the world’s changing today; the size and power of China, India. You take a country like Indonesia today, right – we do not know much about it here – but its economy is now going strongly; it is three times the size of Germany. In the long-term future of the world that European project of integration is going to go ahead, like it or not. It is important that we are part of that, because we as a country – 60 million people in a small island nation – if we want to exercise weight and influence, we have to do it through our alliances and one of those is the European Union.
ANDREW MARR
You still think that one day that means that we will have to be part of the Euro; if there is a Euro to be part of.
TONY BLAIR
If they sort it all out and if Europe moves forward again, then Britain is going to have a very interesting choice in the future; that is going to be the case. Even if they have to reconstruct the Euro, as a result of what is happening.
Supposing the worst happens, again take a step back and look at this not in terms of an electoral cycle but in terms of a generational cycle, the European project is there. The rationale for Europe today is not peace anymore, it is power.
ANDREW MARR
But where does democracy fit into this?
TONY BLAIR
That is a good question.
ANDREW MARR
Because you can only have a democracy where you have a sort of polity; where everybody speaks pretty much the same language; understands each other; knows the leaders; watches them. It is very difficult to see that happening across 22 different languages and countries.
TONY BLAIR
Absolutely. One of the reasons why it is so important that Britain is still there and building alliances, arguing its case, is that I think in the politics of Europe we have something very specific and unique to contribute.
I think that our political system is in many ways the most effective. I mean, my experience of dealing with the European Union is that the British, when they assert themselves, usually get their way actually in Europe.
When this political reconstruction happens, which it will irrespective of what happens to the euro, it is important that we are part of that. We have a set of short-term choices about how we manage this situation; I think, as I say, the only way to preserve the Euro is what I call a grand plan. These incremental changes, whether it is on the Spanish banks or whatever else, will not work.
ANDREW MARR
Not enough, not enough.
TONY BLAIR
It is indeed a fundamental plan that is put before people where the thing is sorted out; where you clean up the balance sheets of the banks; where you organise how you are going to deal with the reform programmes in these various countries. That is the short-term challenge. Long-term then, there is a reconstruction of Europe in which our country has got to have its voice heard.
ANDREW MARR
Yes. Sticking with the British constitution, a story in The Independent today, all over the front page; it says, ‘The truth at last: How Blair misled Cabinet over Iraq’.
For new readers, starting here, the allegation – coming from Alastair Campbell’s diaries – is that you did not want the then Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, to present both sides of the case – the case that the war was legal, and that it might not be legal – to Cabinet because that was too nuanced, and it would be too dangerous in Cabinet.
TONY BLAIR
Yeah, this is…
ANDREW MARR
True?
TONY BLAIR
It’s not true; what is more, we went through this at the Chilcot inquiry, literally ad infinitum and no doubt we will carry on doing so. Look, people like The Independent and so on, you know I will never win this argument with them over Iraq.
It is just worth remembering, we have two interesting anniversaries that have occurred recently. One is Halabja, and Sadam’s use of chemical weapons against that Kurdish town of which, by the way, as many people died in three days as have died in the whole of what has happened in Syria in the last year.
Secondly, the anniversary of the Iran –Iraq war, where we should just remember that there were literally hundreds of thousands of conscript young Iranians who lost their lives, again through the use of chemical weapons. It is actually something that very much triggered the Iranian interest in developing nuclear weapons.
I understand why people still have this disagreement over Iraq, and I do not suppose that we will ever resolve it; but we should at least understand that there is a balanced perspective on it.
ANDREW MARR
Sure, but just to be absolutely clear: the question of what Cabinet government really is, is relevant to this. It is not true that you stopped there being a proper discussion of the legal case with the Attorney General putting his position in front of cabinet, so that people would disagree and people like Clare Short, Robin Cook and so on could have their say?
TONY BLAIR
No, it is absolutely not true and, by the way, they did have their point of view. The notion that Cabinet ever discussed this issue is absurd. I understand why people disagree with it.
They have gone over this so many times; there is no great hidden conspiracy about this; it was a decision. Now, some people agree with it; some people disagree with it. I think when you look at the Middle East today, I think again in the broad sweep of history people will take rather a different view of it.
ANDREW MARR
I would like to ask you about the Middle East today, because we are still waiting today to hear the formal result of the Egyptian elections, but it looks likely that the Muslim Brotherhood candidate will win, or that seems to be the sense.
Can I hear your reflection on the problem that the more democracy you get – we are in favour of democracy, we want democracy, but democracy may very well deliver Islamist people in power; we see Christians in Syria are now very worried about what is going to happen when the South goes. What is the answer?
TONY BLAIR
Well, it is a very good point. The answer is first of all to understand that this Arab revolution, which is continuing and is going to carry on – I do not call it an Arab Spring; it is a revolution and it is going to continue sweeping across the whole region and beyond it – is not like the fall of the Berlin wall.
I mean, this is a mistake for Western analysts to think this. In the case of Eastern Europe and the Berlin wall, people from Eastern Europe looked over the wall; there was a united view as to what they wanted: they wanted what we had in Western Europe and by and large they got it.
Here, in this region there are two very different views as to what comes next once you lift the lid off these dictatorships. One is a view that is very much secular, modernising, liberal minded; the other is very much based on a religious view of society.
You cannot understand the Middle East and what is happening in the Middle East unless you understand the fundamental importance of religion in society.
ANDREW MARR
But that makes it more toxic, because those are not reconcilable really.
TONY BLAIR
Correct. This is why, what I say for the West now, is that we should realise – and this is very unfortunate, we have two crises going on at the same time: one is Europe and the other is the Middle East and unfortunately these crises do not come sequentially; they are together.
In the Middle East we have to remain engaged in this process. We should be supporting a programme, I think, of evolution across this region. We should understand that revolution will throw out these very dangerous and toxic forces; actually, you can see this from Iraq indeed.
So, what is necessary is to understand that short-term this is going to be really, really difficult. Long-term, by the way, this is good; yes, long-term this is good. The good news from the Middle East: people want freedom. The bad news is they are going to have a struggle getting to a form of democracy that is generally open-minded and pluralistic.
ANDREW MARR
Long-term, short-term: five years already since you left Downing Street. We read that you want to take a role again in British public life, a bit more. Lots of the issues that you struggled with are back on the front pages again.
Immigration, for instance, Ed Miliband says that Labour got it wrong in the past over immigration and did not take people’s concerns seriously enough. A fair point?
TONY BLAIR
I think it is fair in some ways. I actually took this decision; in some ways, I do not regret it actually because I think the Polish community and other communities from Eastern Europe do good work in our country, I am happy with them.
But I understand how there is a very marked sensitivity around that. Remember, we fought the 2005 election on immigration when the then Conservative leader wanted to make that a point of attack against us. We confronted it and took it head on, because we had a policy at the time – identity cards – which have gone out of fashion, but I still think are the only way of dealing with what is the central problem here.
I do not think it is so much about immigration per se; I think that most reasonable people in Britain can see that immigrants have made a great contribution to our country. It is where it is uncontrolled, it is illegal, where people come in and you have organised crime, drugs and so on, which is very specific from certain parts.
My view is that you can get to a balanced debate on this and I think that that is what Ed is trying to do.
ANDREW MARR
So what about the party generally because there has been a debate about its future. We hear about Blue Labour – Jon Cruddas coming and all the rest of it – going back to connect to some of the core supporters who may have drifted away during the New Labour years and may need to be brought back in.
Doing better in the opinion polls, but of course oppositions very often do well in the opinion polls halfway through governments. What is your reflection?
TONY BLAIR
I think my reflection is that first of all the good news is that those people who feared Labour would go like we did in 1979, when we got defeated we went crazy for a few years, we are not; we are going to be in contention at the next election.
That is a tribute to the leadership and to the way that the party is a lot more mature, and smarter today.
ANDREW MARR
Are you slightly surprised that Ed Miliband has done perhaps a little better than you might have feared right at the beginning?
TONY BLAIR
I have always thought that Ed is a smart guy, I am not hiding the fact that I was a David supporter because I have worked very closely with David and admire him very much.
Look, I am still an unashamed third-wayer; I think that actually where politics is going in the world today means that you need a very modern view of progressive politics but I think that Labour is perfectly capable of getting to that and articulating a distinctive view from either the Conservative party or the Labour party of the past.
Look, for me playing a part in British politics, I have spent five years building a new organisation in Life; I have two major global foundations, one of which works in Africa, one of which is about this issue of religious extremism and how we get different faiths working together. So, I have just come back from my eighty-sixth visit to the Middle East.
ANDREW MARR
In domestic/European terms, another big job in it for you?
TONY BLAIR
I have always said that I am a public service person first. I would have been happy carrying on as Prime Minister; I would have been happy taking the European job as President of the European Union; but if I am not doing that, I am going to make a difference in a different way.
I think here, where I can contribute I will; if people want to listen that is fine, if they do not that is also fine.
ANDREW MARR
That is fine. Well, in case they do want to listen, what about Jimmy Carr? The controversy over tax avoidance rather than tax evasion. Any sympathy for him?
TONY BLAIR
I think the mood on this has changed. What people maybe would not have cared about a few years back, if you are in a time of economic difficulty and austerity then people care about these things. I do not want to single out one person, but I think in general terms the mood on this has changed.
ANDREW MARR
It is moral to pay tax.
TONY BLAIR
In the end, this is a tough time and people need to know that the pain is being shared.
ANDREW MARR
Tony Blair, thank you very much today. That is all we have time for.
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