Tony Blair: Only a strong centre can defeat the populist surgeTuesday, Jan 17, 2017 in Office of Tony Blair
This article appeared on Project Syndicate on 16 January 2017
Only a strong and revitalised centre can defeat the populist surge.
There is no doubt about the waves of discontent and anger sweeping Western politics. Britain voted to leave the European Union after four decades of membership with all the intricate trading and political connections such a long relationship created. Against all the advice of the political pundits Donald Trump won the American election, something the political class thought virtually inconceivable. All over Europe new political parties are springing up with variations on a theme: the political establishment has ignored us and let us down and we will throw them out in protest.
One signal feature of this uprising is that the impetus to make change becomes more important than any consideration of what the change means in practice. The things political leaders, riding this wave, say can be wildly out of kilter with normal rules of political conduct; but none of it matters. What matters is the revolt is happening and whoever happens to catch the wave as it rises will be born aloft on its force.
By contrast, politicians who make reasoned arguments of a conventional kind merely irritate, arousing an impetuous dismissal at best and contempt and derision at worst.
There is a stack of debate as to exactly why this is happening: stagnant incomes amongst parts at least of the working and middle class; people just managing to get by who feel marginalised; communities disrupted by economic change; immigration for sure; a reaction against the seemingly relentless force of globalisation.
Social media is in my view a huge part of this allowing movements to grow at scale and speed, fragmenting the media further, and creating a new world of information which has no rules of objectivity attached to it, allowing any and every conspiracy theory to stampede and trample the slender little facts standing impotently in their way.
In a country like Britain in the old days – ie around 20 years ago when I was first fighting elections as a leader – the BBC main nightly news had an audience of roughly 10m; today the figure is just over 2.5m. What was one conversation is now many, often people with the same views talking to each other.
So this change in the method of receiving and debating information is for sure a revolutionary phenomenon in itself. The traditional media, which could reassert a role as the news you can trust, have simply decided it is easier and more commercially feasible instead to create a constituency of readers whose loyalty is reinforced by not being challenged.
And there is something quite satisfying in upturning convention. There is a sense of power in shaking the established order.
But we shouldn't kid ourselves. We are playing with fire, entering a very dangerous period of politics. A recent poll showed a significant minority of French citizens were not convinced any longer that democracy was the right system for France. Support for an authoritarian model of leadership is rising everywhere.
Shaking the system up can produce necessary change; but it can also produce consequences that are neither intended nor benign.
Populism is not new. Economic change is not new. Anxiety about immigration is not new. Exploitation of the dissatisfaction of the people is not new.
But the context is new and the inability of the centre to respond and grip is also new.
The truth is that the centre of politics – centre left and centre right – has become complacent and out of touch. We – since I identify completely with a centrist pragmatic view of politics – have become passive managers of the status quo, not change-makers.
In Europe, the EU struggles to find its way back to growth, and reforms are being made against a background of often brutal effects from austerity. In the USA it is clear that white working people in the Northern so-called Rust belt felt neglected and left behind.
Immigration is changing communities and though there is little doubt that in sum and over time, immigration benefits a nation, bringing fresh energy and vigour to it; the immediate impacts can be disruptive and troubling.
There is no doubt either that in general more trade creates more jobs and protectionist policies bring fewer. But short term, jobs which are often skilled and higher paid, disappear.
Technology will intensify these changes.
Add to this mix the fact and aftermath of the financial crisis and the extremism that has dominated security concerns and fed immigration concerns since 9/11, the turbulence of our present political condition is not surprising; it is inevitable.
So the left goes anti business and the right anti immigrant and the centre sways uneasily between appeasement and alarm.
This was never how the centre won.
The centre – particularly the progressive centre - wins when it has the initiative, when it is leading the debate, when the solutions it is putting forward are radical as well as sensible.
This is the urgent requirement of today.
From macro-economic policy, to the transformation of the public sector including education and healthcare through technology, to policies on security and immigration that deal with people’s worries in a tough, hard-headed way, which nonetheless protects our values, the centre has to revitalise, re-discover the policy agenda which owns the future and which competes with the extremes in radicalism but overwhelms them because it is based on answers not anger.
It is no use complaining of the anger and denigrating it. It has to be responded to.
If the centre does this, it will draw back to it the reasonable minded who have joined the revolution out of frustration at being ignored, and that is enough. The margins of defeat whether in Brexit or the USA are not those of the landslide.
People have a lot to lose from chaos and instability. Their natural inclination is to avoid them. But they need to know they're being listened to. Then we can lead our present political condition to a better and more hopeful future.