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Tony Blair: We need a credible framework for Middle East peace negotiations

VIDEO: CLICK HERE TO WATCH CHARLIE ROSE'S INTERVIEW WITH QUARTET REPRESENTATIVE TONY BLAIR

Quartet Representative Tony Blair took time out of UN General Assembly Week to speak to Bloomberg's Charlie Rose about Palestinian UN membership and the need to create a credible framework for Middle East peace negotiations.

(Transcript courtesy of Charlie Rose show)

September 20, 2011

CHARLIE ROSE: Tony Blair is here. He served as prime minister of Great Britain for ten years. Since stepping down in 2007, he has been the Middle East envoy to the Quartet which represents the European Union, the United Nations, the United States and Russia. He has been involved in last minute efforts to restart direct peace talks between Israel and Palestine. The Palestinians have said they will apply to the United Nations Security Council for statehood this Friday.

I’m pleased to have Tony Blair back at this table especially at this moment when he is involved in the most important negotiations that are taking place at the United Nations.

Welcome.

TONY BLAIR: Thank you, Charlie.

CHARLIE ROSE: Where are we? What formula are you looking for from all parties?

TONY BLAIR: The formula we’re looking for is one that gives a framework for the negotiation so that people think it’s credible. So for example you start from the idea that the Palestinian state will be based on the borders in 1967 but they will be mutually-agreed slots which means that you have variations on that borders; that the line will be different from ‘67 but it’s all part of the negotiation which starts from the ‘67 lines.

Then you deal with borders and security first, right, so you don’t just deal with security, you also deal with borders. You get these two very difficult issues out of the way and then you also have Jerusalem and refugees on the agenda so that everyone knows that those items are there.  And then finally, you’ve got to have a time frame that gives with a sense of urgency and direct the parties in a way to, you know, come up with proposals that are comprehensive for peace.

So the idea, very simply, I’m not saying we’ve got this idea yet in place but the idea is to put that framework reference in the negotiation there so the people know it’s credible and they’re not just sitting around the table talking, they’re actually going to be doing something.

CHARLIE ROSE: The parties might say we’ve been trying this with no success for a long, long time. How can you expect just to come to an agreement now?

TONY BLAIR: My point there is always two-fold, actually. The first is, by the way, the fact that you’ve not succeeded in the last 20 years doesn’t mean to say that you’ll never succeed.

CHARLIE ROSE: Right.

TONY BLAIR: And in Northern Ireland, we had 30 or 40 years of failure before we had success. But actually the most important thing in relation to this issue is to say it’s not quite true that we never got anywhere. Actually we came quite close in the year 2000 with President Clinton. Actually we came quite close with Prime Minister Olmert. In the last days of the Bush Administration --

CHARLIE ROSE: In those cases the Palestinians said that "We can’t accept this".  In one case Arafat walked out and in the other case Abbas did not accept it.

TONY BLAIR:  Yes. Although there’s a slight argument about that because the result with Prime Minister Olmert was plainly not able to drive this through but, you know, the point is this.  When people say we’ve gotten nowhere, actually I think these issues are now so well gone over, so well-defined, that I think that if you took five sensible Israelis and five sensible Palestinians and put them in a room together, you know, the resolutions they would come out with wouldn’t be that much different from resolutions --

CHARLIE ROSE: So everybody knows essentially where the end game is.

TONY BLAIR: I think they do and that’s a big difference, by the way, from Northern Ireland. In Northern Ireland, we had to conduct this negotiation the whole time with the fundamental disagreement about the end game. Is it United Ireland or United Kingdom.

CHARLIE ROSE: Right.

TONY BLAIR: In this case, everybody agrees. We want two states, secure state of Israel, and the viable state of Palestinian.

CHARLIE ROSE: Why shouldn’t -- the Palestinians make this argument and Turki al Faisal made this argument here at this table last night. They can still negotiate if they’re a state. Why do you say they have to negotiate in order to become a state? Why not simply say, you’re a state now go negotiate with the Israelis over borders and negotiate with the Israelis over Jerusalem and negotiate with the Israelis over these issues?

TONY BLAIR: I think that what most people think is in the end, we understand why people are very frustrated with this process and therefore the Palestinians have taken their case to the United Nations --

CHARLIE ROSE: Right.

TONY BLAIR: They are fully entitled to do it, by the way and said "We want recognition as a state". But I think people also know the only way you’re going to get a state is if you negotiate its borders, Israelis and Palestinians together. So the concept of the state, if you like where you’ve got two parts Gaza and the West Bank under different authorities, by the way, where we haven’t yet agreed the border of the states, it’s obviously preferable to have the negotiation and then declare the state.

Now, what President Abbas would say is "I agree with that but there’s no sign the Israeli’s will negotiate."
 
CHARLIE ROSE: Exactly and they continue to build the settlements, he would say. The arguments he makes.

TONY BLAIR: Correct and you know, I sympathize with what the Palestinians are saying on that. On the other hand as I say to them at the moment we’ve got no negotiations and settlement construction. And the best way to resolve the issue of settlements is to resolve the issue of borders.

So provided you’ve got a time line, and what I’m actually suggesting and I’m giving away what’s in the statement at the moment is a very tough, tight time line for this negotiation in which the parties very soon will be expected to make substantial progress on the negotiations. And what that means is you get the framework to resolve the issue of borders, and once you resolve the issue of borders then you resolve the issue of settlement.

I think the Palestinians are perfectly entitled to come and say we want to be recognized as a state. Now that process doesn’t happen over night by the way; that will take some time. I think what is difficult is that people say we want, we demand recognition as the state but we’re not prepared to have this negotiation on terms that are fair. Obviously those terms have got to be fair.

I’ve said all the way through that it’s inevitable the Palestinians will come to the United Nations this week, the question is can we combine whatever happens at the U.N. with the re-launched negotiation. If we can then I think we’re in the business of advancing this thing. If we can’t then, you know, from the Israeli perspective, and they’ve also got their view on this they will say well, you’ve chosen to go through the U.N. rather than through a negotiation and then you have a parting of the ways.  

CHARLIE ROSE: Ok. But now, you tell me the formula that I’m trying to understand, which is, how do you -- what do you combine? You combine their presence at the U.N. with negotiations. How does that work? What’s the formula?

TONY BLAIR: Well, it can work in a number of different ways, maybe it’s because this is really for the Palestinians. So let me be a little bit coy about how this all works out but essentially the Palestinians have said and made it clear they’re going to launch an application for membership.

CHARLIE ROSE: And launch it at the Security Council and not the General Assembly.

TONY BLAIR: That’s what they have said that they’ll do that at the Security Council. They’ve got the option obviously always of going to the General Assembly. But in any event, what I’m thinking -- whatever happens at the U.N. then let’s take that as one step forward (ph) if you like. What is important is to launch a negotiation so that we have a situation where the Palestinians and the Israelis are trying to resolve these issues and the only way you will resolve them on the ground.

And the anxiety of people like myself and I’ve, you know, I’ve just come back from my 71st visit there. I’m there the whole time. It’s on the ground you need change. And if you don’t get the change on the ground, then you can pass frankly any number of resolutions but you wouldn’t get peace. So I’m not, as I say, I understand why the Palestinian are here at the U.N. I understand they’re going to launch this application for membership. But whatever happens here in New York, the only way of producing change in Palestine is going to be through a negotiation.

CHARLIE ROSE: Palestinians will say look we have been doing things on the ground. You know Salam Fayyad has been doing it in Ramallah. So we are changing on the ground now, you should give us some credit for that, you know, and engage in negotiations with us.

TONY BLAIR: Yes. Sure.

CHARLIE ROSE: Are the Israelis saying we will not negotiate if the Palestinians go ahead with the statehood request?

TONY BLAIR: I think what the Israelis are saying this can only be resolved by negotiation. I mean it’s not for me to say what they might do if -- and I think it depends in a way not just what happens at the U.N. but the atmosphere around how it happens. But what you say about state building is absolutely right.  And this is a really important point. The truth is in the last few years as a result of what Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has done under the President Abbas’ leadership has been to create institutions of statehood that are strong and are now recognized, for example, by the IMF and the World Bank and others as those of a fully-functioning state.

Now we’ve still got, of course, the split between Gaza and West Bank. And this is a problem. It’s a problem for the Palestinians. It’s also actually a problem for the Israelis as well and for the international community. But certainly on the West Bank, there have been, if anything has worked in the last few years, it’s been that state building program. And as a result of that, by the way, to just give you a specific example, because of the improved security that the Palestinians have put in on the West Bank in a place like Jenin in the northern part of the Palestinian territory, we’ve got the Israelis to open up the border. There are now Arab Israelis or Israeli Arabs who come in over the border. And they will do their shopping and business and commerce in Jenin. The result of that has been literally millions of dollars flowing into the economy.

So over the past two or three years the Palestinian economy on the West Bank has been raking (ph) in double figures.

CHARLIE ROSE: What do you make of the idea that some say if the United States is forced to veto in the Security Council, it will have terrible repercussions for the United States’ role in the Middle East, in the Gulf and other parts of that world.

TONY BLAIR: Well, it’s difficult, there’s no doubt about that. On the other hand, I think this is why it’s important that we are also striving to re-launch the negotiation. So I don’t think what you will get this week is simply a U.S. veto. I mean I hope it doesn’t come to that anyway, by the way, but I think everyone is focused also in making it clear that there is a basis for new negotiations. And by the way I believe very strongly there is a basis for a new negotiation.

CHARLIE ROSE: What do the Israelis want?

TONY BLAIR: I think it’s very clear what they want. They want to know that any Palestinian state will be properly run and they will be secure as a result. It might be for the Israelis, this is actually very, very simple. You see, in the region that we have at the moment where there’s this massive instability, in a funny way for the Israelis, even though at one level they support democracy and the changes in Egypt and even Syria and so on.  On the other hand, all their fixed points of stability are altering.

CHARLIE ROSE: Right. Exactly. And there’s no guarantee that the new Egyptian government is going to have the same position that the Mubarak government had with respect to them.

TONY BLAIR: I would almost guarantee --

(CROSSTALK)

TONY BLAIR: I would almost say that there will be a far more powerful feeling on the street which is one of the things which makes this so important to get this negotiation going. So for the Israelis, I think it’s really quite simple. What they want to know is that the Palestinian state that will come into being is going to be securely and properly governed so they can live in peace and the Palestinians can live in peace. And in time --

CHARLIE ROSE: So then what can be done in negotiations to assure them of that?

TONY BLAIR: I think actually, and obviously a whole lot of instrumental things about security presence and so on. But the absolutely central thing is, funny enough, not something that you can as it were put down on a piece of paper. It is that they feel psychologically and politically and really in a profound way socially, the Palestinian people have said that’s it, that’s the end of all claims.  This is the negotiation. This is the final negotiation we’ve sorted it out.  We’ve got our state, they’ve got their state. Their state’s for their people, our state’s for our people. Enough, let’s get on with our lives. Now I think particularly (ph) to the Israeli experience in Gaza, that’s very tough for them because what they -- I know all these counter-explanations, by the way, but for the Israelis, and it’s just important to understand this, they think look we took our settlers out of Gaza, 7,000 of them and what we got was Hamas take over with rockets, now firing our civilians.  So you want us to do this on the West Bank. I understand that, which is why this thing has got to be handled with care --

CHARLIE ROSE: I understand that too. So what do you say to them?

TONY BLAIR: What I say to them is this --

CHARLIE ROSE: There’s a kind of on the ground stability that will take place if in fact they have a statehood and what will happen is in Ramallah under Salam Fayyad. That will grow and spread throughout the West Bank.

TONY BLAIR: Well, I think what we have shown in the West Bank is what works.  I mean the one -- you know a few years back, you can say well it’s not quite clear what works. Now it’s absolutely clear. What’s clear is the Palestinians taking their obligations of rule of law, and law and order seriously which Fayyad has done. And with help from the Americans, Europeans, Jordanians and others, and it then requires frankly for the Palestinian politics as a whole because the only you’ll ever get a deal is to say Gaza and West Bank is one state under one authority and one rule of law.  Now that is something in the end the Palestinians are going to have to sort out themselves and that will --

CHARLIE ROSE: Are they doing that? Is there any evidence, because Turki al Faisal here said that Hamas now, is in a sense protecting Israel, he said from some disparate groups who want to (INAUDIBLE) that in fact they are doing some positive things. That was the point he raised -- you’re looking incredulous at that idea.

TONY BLAIR: Look, I honestly don’t know.

CHARLIE ROSE: Is there any progress on the Hamas side, is my point.

TONY BLAIR: Well, I don’t know.

CHARLIE ROSE:  It would be crucial, would it not?

TONY BLAIR:  It would be -- it would be crucial for one of two things to happen.  Either Hamas change and become part of the solution or alternatively the Palestinian people make it clear that what they want are people who are going to promote peace and not conflict. So when people ask me about, you know, where is Hamas in all this, I say to them I honestly don’t know. For Hamas also, by the way, the world has changed.  I mean they -- Syria is where they are based.  They’re fallen out or partially at least with the Assad regime.

CHARLIE ROSE: And they’re talking about moving to Cairo in some cases.

TONY BLAIR: Right. And Iran has been financing them and arming them but then their relations with Iran is somewhat strained at the moment. Then they have the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.  Do they -- so they’ve got decisions to make as well.  My point about the situation right now is that oddly although most people say well, because of all the uncertainty in this region and the revolution that’s going on, this is the worst time to make peace. My counter to that is actually it’s the best time to make peace. It’s the one thing that will allow Israel and Palestine to be part of the mood of change in the region and not seen as something that has --

CHARLIE ROSE: When things are in flux it’s time to make peace rather when everything is solid and stable.

TONY BLAIR: Correct. I mean look, for most of these countries the last thing they need right now is another bit of instability. Right. So for them there’s an enormous strategic interest. I mean this again is the opportunity; it’s in America’s interest, Europe’s interest, the Arab countries’ interest. Everyone’s basically, apart from the people causing instability out in the region; everyone’s interest to try to move this properly and seriously. And so if you’re an Arab country at the moment you’re looking at all the instability there is around what would you like with the Palestinian issue to take it out of politics and the region and resolve it?

CHARLIE ROSE: As you know some will argue and Tom Friedman wrote a strong column on Sunday which you may have seen about Israel feeling under siege now and also not providing the kind of leadership that he particularly would like to see Prime Minister Netanyahu.  Do you have any sense that they understand that this is a moment of opportunity for us because of how things have changed and there is a sense that we are under -- that we’re under pressure from all corners?

TONY BLAIR: Yes, I think there is a sense.

CHARLIE ROSE: And that’s a motivating factor for them that you pick up yourself in conversations?

TONY BLAIR: Yes. And I think that’s something I would say that tends to draw blood but I think it’s something that has grown, if you like, in the last few weeks.

CHARLIE ROSE: In the last few weeks.

TONY BLAIR: Yes, I think, if you’re Israel and you’re looking at the situation now in the region and you look at Egypt, Gaza, relationship with Turkey, what’s happening in Syria, I mean you don’t have to be a strategic genius to work out that there’s a lot of potential threats. So for Israel, I think certainly from my conversations and Prime Minister Netanyahu understands very well this is a moment of strategic challenge for Israel and therefore requiring a strategic move forward. And I think he’s prepared to do that. And one of the difficulties always in this situation and I used to go through with Northern Ireland the whole time.  People would say you used to literally have identical conversations when people say I really want peace but the other guy doesn’t.You know you’ve got to -- I know a lot of people say about Prime Minister Netanyahu well he’s not interested in peace.  My view of that is very simple.  They say to me do you think he’s serious about peace I say well, test it out.  Get into the negotiation and see.

CHARLIE ROSE: What does he have to do? Does he have to simply say I’m willing to talk about these issues? That’s all he has to do?

TONY BLAIR: No, I think there are two things that would make a big difference. If you -- because what we’re suggesting is that you have a meeting between the leaders as soon as possible really.

CHARLIE ROSE: Here in New York.

TONY BLAIR: Well not necessarily here in New York but certainly within a month or within a short period of time.

CHARLIE ROSE: Why not here in New York. I don’t mean to play the game here, but they’re both speaking to the General Assembly on Friday. Why not say --

TONY BLAIR: Let’s try to manage this bit by bit. Let’s try and get through Friday first. But I mean you ask what should you do? I think there are two things that he should do and could do, if we get this thing moving in the right direction.
The first is to come out within a pretty short space of time with comprehensive proposals on borders and securities. Those are the two issues we think should be taken first. We need to know where Israel stands on those two issues.

And the second thing is to move things on the ground. I mean there’s lots of things that we’ve done in areas like Area C, the responsibility of the Palestinians’ security in certain areas. There are lots of things that could indicate we’re on our way.  And when you say what is it that he should do -- that is what he should do. What is it the Palestinians should do? Well, they should also be putting forward comprehensive proposals but at the same time they should also, and I think this is going to be important for them, trying to work out how they resolve this basic problem which you know we have a tendency to sort of gloss over but you can’t which is you have the West Bank here and Gaza here.

CHARLIE ROSE: Right.

TONY BLAIR: And if you’re going to have a state with the two of them, at some point we’re going to have to work out how that can operate.

CHARLIE ROSE: But here is one idea that I’ve heard. That the Palestinians will go to the Security Council and they will ask for a process to begin but nothing has to happen for a while.  And while that -- they will therefore satisfy those friends they have and those people who are demanding that they do something, that will be satisfied.  The process will have begun but you don’t have to act on it right away.  And then you can then say this process will be taking place, let’s get the negotiations going because they will enhance the process.  Does that make sense?

TONY BLAIR: Well, I don’t think the Palestinians will ever agree to putting their application as it were on hold.

(CROSSTALK)

CHARLIE ROSE:  -- fobbed off at the pending tray.

TONY BLAIR: However, having said that, the fact is you make your application to state hood and there is machinery in the U.N. that has to work. If it’s possible to re-launch the negotiation soon, then I think as I tell you, I think that actually alters the whole context at which whatever happens at the U.N. happens. One is very much instead of negotiation we do this and the other is look, let’s combine and a desire for statehood, our legitimate aspirations for statehood, and our application for that with the negotiation. However having said all of that Charlie, I’ve got to say by no means --

CHARLIE ROSE: Here is what I assume from our conversation so far. That that probably is what all sides are hoping for. That negotiation, some kind of application will take place, take its time to do as it does. Nobody’s putting it on hold, nobody’s sidelining it but negotiations will get started so that everybody feels like they have gained some of what they wanted. Is that what you’re saying?

TONY BLAIR: Well I hope that everyone’s hoping for something that allows us for them to make their application to statehood and get a negotiation going. I mean there are different permutations and they’ve still got the General Assembly open by the way at any point. I think really my task is more precise in a way which is, is it possible to get an agreed framework for a re-launched negotiation because whatever permutation of this thing you’re talking about it all depends on getting an agreed launch for the negotiation.

CHARLIE ROSE: You’ve been asked this before. Is this as toughest thing as you have to deal with in your political life?

TONY BLAIR: Yes. Yes, I would say it’s definitely this is actually a lot more challenging than I really understood. I mean -- and yet the curious thing about it which is why it’s also fascinating is that there is a sort of agreement about what should happen ultimately. I mean -- and the other thing that’s incredible is that both peoples really want peace. And what’s more, through peace both peoples would gain enormously. I mean if you’re Israel you get acceptance from the Arab world.  You’ll then -- by the way, there’s lots that Israel can teach the region.  I mean I know when people, you know, stop and take a breath and you stay in certain quarters but actually you look at what Israel’s doing in the technology sector, you look at how they develop their institutions, the Hassidic society.  It’s a remarkable story the state of Israel. Likewise the Palestinians are incredibly innovative, creative people.  They’ve got some of the greatest business people in the world, although outside not inside.  But if you’ve got a Palestinian state, you know, you would say they could become a gateway into the region.

CHARLIE ROSE: They have what a lot of emerging young nations have, they have a very young demographic.

(CROSSTALK)

TONY BLAIR: Yes. And they have a good education system on the whole. So you know --

CHARLIE ROSE: This is what makes it a crime that nothing’s been done.

TONY BLAIR Well, I will often say to people, the most frustrating thing is not that it’s so hard to solve that in a way you think it should be -- it should be possible to solve it.  But there you go.  I mean that’s politics.

CHARLIE ROSE:  Yes, because it’s a triumph of fear over hope in the end.

TONY BLAIR: Yes. I think it’s -- it’s -- there are many -- I mean, I think in the region as a whole, what I understand a lot better now than I did really when I was in office I think are these -- these profound religious and social influences and that, you know, operate at a level and have an impact on the politics which from the outside I think is not -- is not always understood.

CHARLIE ROSE: Because you are a man of faith, does that help you -- not because of a particular faith that you understand the power of -- of religion?

TONY BLAIR: There are at least two competing views of faith. One is a view of faith as a -- as very much inclusive, a set of values --

(CROSSTALK)

CHARLIE ROSE: Right, right.

TONY BLAIR: -- that is -- that is about social justice, compassion for others, a regard and respect for others. And then this fate, which becomes almost a badge of identity in opposition to others, which is a very exclusive notion.  And you’ve got those competing notions in the region. You’ve actually got those competing notions in Israel and Palestine by the way. And -- and so you know, what’s interesting to me is if you look at Israeli society for example. You know, you have these massive demonstrations, which is another factor by the way in all of this. I mean 300,000 or 400,000 people out in the streets of Tel Aviv.  I mean, it’s a huge and think and underneath all --

(CROSSTALK)

CHARLIE ROSE: Demanding something we don’t know.

TONY BLAIR:  Yes and all of -- this in -- in an Israeli society that is -- that is complex, that has different elements within it.  And then, you look at the -- the Arab world and you see basically I think a -- a fundamental battle about modernization that’s going on day in and day out.  

CHARLIE ROSE: I close with this.

But -- but you’re saying to me that -- that you’ve -- that notwithstanding all their experiences and notwithstanding their own political limitations, the coalition governments and the like, that you are convinced that the leadership wants to do something on both sides.

(CROSSTALK)

TONY BLAIR: I am -- yes, I am convinced the leadership on both sides --

CHARLIE ROSE: This is the President and the Prime Minister.

TONY BLAIR: Yes, do -- do want peace and do want peace on a fair and just basis. And I’m also convinced that the people in both Palestine and Israel want peace, know that there is no future for them without it.  And I think this is a moment when with -- with some real vision and courage actually the political leadership can align itself with that broad mass of people that want peace in order to secure it.

CHARLIE ROSE: Good luck.

TONY BLAIR: I’ll need it.

CHARLIE ROSE: Tony Blair.

VIDEO: CLICK HERE TO WATCH CHARLIE ROSE'S INTERVIEW WITH QUARTET REPRESENTATIVE TONY BLAIR